In the future, what major security risks do you see?
The NATO summit that took place in Washington last week seemed to have accomplished everything on paper
. The alliance can display its strength and size like never before by boldly urging China to halt its covert assistance for Russia’s war on Kyiv and its seemingly unwavering military support for Ukraine.
In a moment of political instability in Washington and Europe, Sir Keir Starmer’s new ministry can become a transatlantic alliance lynchpin.
After returning to Britain, the new administration must manage the economy, housing, immigration, and NHS.
Unexpected threats and scenarios can derail even the best-planned events.
What does the future hold for the newly elected UK government?Lebanon conflict
This is being monitored by everyone, so no surprises. This does not reduce its threat to Israel, Lebanon, and the Middle East.
“The possibility of a large-scale Israeli invasion of Lebanon this summer should be at the top of the new government’s geopolitical risk register.”
That’s according to Whitehall think tank RUSI Deputy Director-General Professor Malcolm Chalmers.
Prof. Chalmers warned that “we could be entering a period of sustained multi-front warfare in the region, for which neither Israel nor its Western partners will be prepared.” The Houthis’ attacks on Red Sea commerce and the Gaza conflict have prompted him to
Last October’s Hamas-led assault into southern Israel and Israel’s military campaign in Gaza sparked fears of a full-scale regional conflict.
A war is most likely to occur along Israel’s shaky northern border with Lebanon.
Iran supports Shia Hezbollah. IDF and Hezbollah shoot routinely across this border, killing hundreds, mostly in Lebanon.
Many Lebanese have lost everything, while nearly 60,000 northern Israelis have lost their homes and livelihoods.
A “deal with” Hezbollah that would move its forces north of the Litani River in Lebanon, away from Israel’s missile danger, has grown as public pressure on the Israeli government has increased.
Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani said the Israeli Defence Forces prefer not to go to war, “but I don’t think any country could accept 60,000 of its citizens displaced.” This cannot continue. We desire diplomacy, but Israel’s tolerance is eroding.
News agency Reuters Israel-bound rockets intercepted from LebanonNews agency Reuters
Lebanon has fired rockets towards Israel.
Each side has good reasons to avoid going to battle.
The economy in Lebanon is unstable. After the 2006 war with Israel, which the country is still recovering from, a war would decimate its infrastructure and people.
After a major Israeli invasion or strike, Hezbollah will likely undertake a long-term missile, drone, and rocket attack that might destroy Israel’s Iron Dome air defences.
It covers all of Israel.
The US Navy, stationed offshore, may join Israel’s cause today. One can ask what Iran might do in this case.
It also has a large ballistic missile arsenal and may target Israel through proxy forces in Syria, Yemen, and Iraq.
If the Gaza siege ended, Israeli-Lebanese border tensions would decrease. After nine months and a terrible death toll, a permanent truce has not been negotiated.
Isfahan gets nuclear weapons
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) to kerb and monitor Iran’s nuclear programme was the Obama administration’s biggest foreign policy achievement in 2015.Nato
Its glory days are over.
One year after Trump’s unilateral pullout, Iran stopped implementing its rules.Nato
Iran’s nuclear centrifuges have been spinning furiously, enriching uranium to much aboNatove the 20% needed for peaceful civic purposes, deep beneath massive mountains. Nuclear bombs need highly enriched uranium.Nato
Officially, Iran claims its nuclear programme is peaceful and for energy generation.
But Israeli and Western analysts worry Iran has a clandestine effort to acquire “breakout capability”—the ability to create a nuclear bomb but not necessarily doing so.
Iran will have seen that North Korea, a global pariah, has been steadily accumulating nuclear bombs and delivery systems, deterring any attacker.
Saudi Arabia, Iran’s regional adversary, will likely seek the bomb if it does. Egypt and Turkey would too.
The Middle East now has a nuclear weapons race.Nato
Russia wins in Ukraine
news agency Reuters A Ukrainian town’s elderly woman tears after a missile strikeReuters
Russia controls 18% of Ukraine.Nato
This depends on your definition of “winning”.
The maximalist scenario has Russian forces overpowering Ukraine’s defences and taking the rest of the nation, including Kyiv, replacing President Volodymyr Zelensky’s pro-West government with a Moscow-appointed puppet dictatorship.
The February 2022 Russian invasion was based on such plan, which failed horribly.
This scenario is unlikely.
Russia does not need to overrun Ukraine to announce a “victory” and justify its astronomically high casualties to its citizens.
Russia controls 18% of Ukraine and is slowly expanding in the east.
Though more Western weapons are coming, Ukraine is desperately short on manpower. Valiantly fighting against overwhelming odds, its warriors are tired.
Russian commanders, who seem unconcerned about their guys, have mass behind them. With about 40% of the national budget going to defence, Russia’s economy is on war footing.
Vladimir Putin, whose “conditions for peace talks” meant Ukraine’s submission, believes time is on his side. He knows his old friend Donald Trump will likely return to the White House within months and Western backing for Ukraine will wane.
Russia may celebrate a partial win in the war it has framed as a fight for survival by holding onto the area it has conquered and preventing Ukraine from joining Nato and the EU.
China takes Taiwan
Again, many indicators indicate this one is coming.
Xi Jinping and his officials have often called for Taiwan’s self-governing island democracy to be “returned to the Motherland” by force.
Taiwan opposes Beijing-based CCP rule.
However, China considers Taiwan a renegade province and wants it “reunited” before the CCP centenary in 2049.
The US maintains “strategic ambiguity” on Taiwan.
Washington is constitutionally required to defend Taiwan, but it likes to keep China guessing about whether to commit soldiers to oppose a Chinese invasion.
Reuters Chinese President Xi Jinping at a Beijing ParadeReuters
Chinese President Xi Jinping has often called for Taiwan’s “returned to the Motherland”
China would likely avoid invading Taiwan.because
This would be costly in blood and gold. Beijing wants Taiwan to give up independence and accept mainland governance.
Beijing has another option since that seems improbable – the Taiwanese have witnessed Hong Kong’s democracy crumble.
If China moves on Taiwan, it will likely try to isolate it from the outside world, making life intolerable for its population, but with minimal bloodshed to avoid war with the US.
Does Taiwan matter? It does.but This goes beyond supporting a democratic ally across the world.
Taiwan makes almost 90% of the world’s high-end microchips, which power practically everything we use today.
A US-China war over Taiwan will devastate the world economy more than the Ukraine war.
Is there good news?
Not exactly, although there are moderating elements.
For China, commerce is everything. Beijing’s unwillingness to start a global trade war and sanctions may limit its ambitious aspirations to force the US Navy out of the western Pacific and dominate the region.
President Putin is slowly gaining territory in Ukraine, but at great cost in casualties.
Around 15,000 Red Army soldiers died in Afghanistan in the 1980s, sparking domestic demonstrations and hastening the Soviet Union’s demise.
Russia has suffered several times that death toll in Ukraine in one quarter of that time. Protests have been restricted since the Kremlin controls what Russians see on TV, but the longer this war continues, the more the Russian population will object to the rising number of civilian deaths.
Europe fears a Trump presidency will withdraw its traditional protection, therefore a new UK-led security deal is being prepared.
As the November US presidential election approaches, plans are accelerated to alleviate security risks on the continent.
